thecatapult.in

I had reservations about this deal from the beginning and had expressed it often on this blog and other fora. I favoured that this deal be kept on hold till some kinks in it were ironed out and that we don’t rush into it without properly thinking it through. But that is a tall order to ask in India especially with the current ruling clique. And it is political expediency of the worst kind rather than concerns regarding national interest which has led to the stalling of this treaty.

Can’t go through with the deal right now: Manmohan Singh to Bush

The prime minister explained to Bush that certain difficulties have arisen with respect to the operationalisation of the agreement.

This statement by the prime minister almost officially puts the deal on the backburner, which has become a bitter bone of contention between India ’s United Progressive Alliance government and its ally, the Left. Just before setting off for a state-visit to Nigeria and South Africa, the prime minister had hinted at such a development by mentioning at a summit, “If the nuclear deal does not come through, it won’t be the end of the life.”

Reading the Hyde Act after the 123 Agreement has been “signed and sealed” in the words of our unelected PM gives one an insight in retrospect that would not be possible back in the late of last year when it was passed.

Among them one striking feature of the Act that stands out is that it is steeped in the language of Non-proliferation from start to finish. The Hyde Act begins, drones on and ends with the incantations, praises and tributes to that jealous god of Non-proliferation policy-the very same Non-proliferation orthodoxy that believes that it is Ok for the Communist thugs of China who butcher their own people on the streets like dogs and then sell their body parts on the Black Market to have nuclear weapons. But it is somehow NOT ok for the world’s largest democracy to have them for its own self-defense.

The entire act is full of stuff like seeking India’s full adherence to all the alphabet soup regimes like NPT, MTCR, IAEA, Australia group, the watz-that-shit-ennar arrangement, NSG, FMCT etc… the Works!

In its own make believe world the NPA lobby in Washington is under the self inflicted delusion that the NPT has been a “great success” and that only those countries outside the NPT pose a challenge to the prevention of the spread of “dangerous” nuclear technologies.

Someone should make them read their own CIA’s periodic reports about blatant violation of the NPT by the Chinese who armed both Pakistan and North Korea(and recently trying to do so with Iran) with nuclear weapons and the resultant domino effect when the Pakistanis then subsequently sold it to everyone with a traveller’s cheque, credit card or a bhai ki sifarish in the black market. While at the same time the North Koreans (party to the NPT) were doing the same with Chinese supplied long range missiles violating another of their pet peeves the MTCR.

I mean the amount of cognitive dissonance that the US Congress or more particularly the left-wing NPA lobby within it suffers from can be perceived by two contradicting sections in their own law manual- Section 2(4) of what they have passed says that in their opinion only those countries that remain outside the NPT are a cause of concern to realize the objectives of non-proliferation. While at the section 3(4) they seek India’s, i.e., a non-NPT signatory’s co-operation to censure Iran, a fellow NPT member for trying to acquire nuclear weapons in violation of the NPT. Perhaps Michael Moore was right these guys never read what they themselves pass! Perhaps someone should hire another ice cream truck and go around Capitol Hill actually reading to them what they have passed.

The Bush administration might have realized this new reality of the world and is trying to adjust policy to it accordingly but the US Congress is still stuck in the old cold war mentality. And the one that passed the Hyde act was actually dominated by Republicans! Right now with the likes of Nancy Pelosi and John Murtha calling the shorts there things can only be worse.

And this is the Congress dominated by some of the worst left wing nut cases in America which is going to be taking up the 123 Agreement!

That means the whole process that was followed to pass the Hyde Act will have to be gone through again and this time with the NPA lobby on a stronger wicket than last time with the Democrats in control of both houses of Congress and the Democrats themselves under the control of the extreme loony left.

Our rude and ignorant PM who termed the 123 Agreement as “signed and sealed” when asked to run it through the Indian Parliament is in for the shock of his life when the US Congress finally takes it up. The US Congress is going to take his precious “signed and sealed” thing and run it through the nearest paper shredder and then they will churn the remains in their cafeteria grinder and make him drink the resulting bitter concoction.

That is the way the US congress is designed. Every lawmaker there is free to vote on his own and often does. There is no concept of Party whip and every member is free to introduce his or her own amendments to any Bill under consideration and get it voted upon and they often do. Each member needs to be lobbied. Only the Gods know how much more money will be going down the drain to make sure that the 123 makes it through in atleast somewhat recognizable shape to the one that it will go in.

And that brings us to another interesting aspect; the Indian lobby must be the only one in Washington which spends money to get laws passed against its own interests while the US lawmakers laugh all the way to the bank

For the Indian side that is! thanks to an appointed Prime Minister who though himself having never won even a single election in his whole political career refuses to acknowledge the right of parliament, the legitimate representative of the people of the world’s largest democracy to discuss the deal and vote on it.

One of India’s top strategic affairs analyst Mr Brahma Chellaney in a three part article on the legal pitfalls of the Nuclear deal and another on the false promises of nuclear energy destroys entirely the Manmohan Singh government’s case to push ahead with the deal in its current “signed and sealed” form. He speaks of divergent interests of the two “parties” involved in the deal which explains why the deal is not turning out as many Indians who are supportive of closer strategic relations with the US hoped it would and says that-

“While India sees it as a path to closer engagement with the US, the deal for Washington is anchored in non-proliferation”.

And he lists in detail point by point about how the American side under pressure from the non-proliferation lobby has steadfastly focussed on that goal and how the Indian negotiating side has faltered in its duty to safeguard India’s supreme national interests and actually conceded that the US domestic law(drafted under considerable influence of the NPA lobby) will reign supreme in this arrangement. which in practice will mean that the US will feel free to pull out anytime it feels like or use it to arm twist India into a corner.

The point is this, there is a huge non-proliferation lobby in the US and the way the US system is designed, they just like the pro-Indian side get to lobby and include their own points into the deal. and considering that India and the US were at logger heads for much of the past six decades there is a huge mass of entrenched cold war warriors who are as instinctively opposed to the growing Indo-US strategic relationship as much as the Communists are in India and would do anything to hijack it.

In this scenario what Mr Chellaney suggests is quite sensible and worth considering while dealing with the US at this time.

“The best course for India at this point would be to put the deal on hold while continuing to build a stronger relationship with the US in other areas.”

This will give enough time to the ageing cold war warriors on both sides to go underground and thereafter it will be much safer say perhaps a decade from now to get into such sensitive deals because the Indo-US strategic relationship is too important to be held hostage to such irritants.

There is too much at stake here and if the US anytime in the future comes to be seen as having “cheated” India i.e., if it reneges or goes back on its “commitments” nothing will ever redeem its good name again in India and the growing strategic relationship between India and US which is giving sleepless nights to the tyrants and enemies of freedom across the world will grind to a standstill and that would be a great tragedy. It is of outmost importance therefore for both sides to carefully nurture this growing relationship rather than score self-goals against each other.

With the Final draft of the Indo-US nuke deal now in the open. It is now becoming increasingly difficult for the Manmohan Singh govt to weather the storm it is generating. All this time they could stall the impending backlash by pointing to the next step in the process. When the Hyde act was passed the country was urged to wait for the next step viz the 123 Agreement which they maintained is what will bind the Indian and US governments, now that the 123 Agreement is out there is no place for the Manmohan Singh govt to “hyde” but face the music.

But even at this time the government still seems unwilling to debate the provisions of the deal and allay any and all doubts and apprehensions prefering to go with the same approach that it has taken all these months- giving empty assurances and then stonewalling.

There is justifiable nervousness among the opposition, the Indian public and the scientific community at large on many points of the deal.

But the one which is really shocking was the casual way in which the government’s negotiators “forgot” to insist with their American counterparts to include  this one all important clause which seems to be the hallmark in most 123 agreements that Washington has signed with other “parties”.

that neither party will “invoke the provisions of its internal law as justification for its failure to perform” the agreement.

All the more surprising keeping in mind the bitter experience this country had with a previous such agreement with the Americans in the past.

The Americans back then not only unilaterally reneged on their commitments but raised a whole mountain of legislation and international bodies to make India’s life difficult. What is the guarantee that there wouldn’t be a repeat performance of this in future?

 Infact the Hyde Act’s so called “non-binding” provisions leaves a trapdoor open for just that by saying that Washington will not only terminate its side of the deal but also try to block India’s nuclear trade with other NSG countries. Meaning we will be back to square one. Enacting of more laws and raising of even more international alphabet soup bodies to censure India.

It was quite funny to see Mr Pranab Mukherjee arguing in Parliament that many of the provisions in the Hyde Act were “non-binding”. Well that doesn’t really matter since it can be interpreted in any way the President of the day wants. And Bush won’t be around for “perpetuity”.

And this one careless blunder besides all of not closing that trapdoor by including that one clause besides other remaining issues will come to haunt India for “perpetuity” if India at this time decides to go for this unequal and flawed deal.

The Negotiations to formalize the Indo-US Nuke treaty with a 123 agreement has hit a roadblock. The Indians seem to have developed a spine and a sense of purpose and Uncle Sam is not very happy about it.

Indo-US Nuke treaty negotiations in a Soup

The (American) officials are incensed that India played hardball at the negotiations, with New Delhi continuing to express concern over certain provisions of the enabling legislation approved by Congress and signed into law by President Bush in December.

Amazing really! The Indian MEA actually has a backbone.

But the Indian Media as usual(including the rest of the above rediff column) is batting for the other side and begging the Indian negotiators to capitulate. ToI has an editorial today titled ‘Agni Pariksha‘ begging the Indian side to give in, rollover and play dead.It is not yet posted on their website. But one can pick a copy from the newsstand today. It is a shameful read. devoid of logic or substance. Their main line of argument is

1. It is a pity to let it fall on the last mile.

2. A combination of “concessions” from both sides and some “creative face-saving gestures” should suffice to see the deal through.

3. It is unlikely for example that India is going to conduct more nuclear tests

4. And ofcourse nothing ends without a swipe at the scientists and technical experts who the ToI editorial dismisses as having a “blinkered vision” and “all-or-nothing approach” and not being sophisticated enough to “appreciate political realities” .

For starters there is no room for emotions. This treaty is a serious matter which could affect India’s military preparedness in the face of two nuclear armed foes with whom India has fought 4 wars, one limited conflict and various skirmishes and still has unresolved territorial disputes. The only option for India in this critical situation is a strong credible nuclear deterrent of its own. And this treaty if not properly negotiated could seriously impair India’s strategic deterrent capability.

The Point No 2 is pathetic. This is the same rehash of the discredited Panchsheel type thinking and we know which side ends up doing all the “concessions” and the “face saving gestures” and their consequences.

Point No 3 is again a mess. A bunch of journalists from an non-scientific background (sorry for this swipe, no offence meant) can never understand how complex scientific systems really are. They are so used to switching on their computers and gadgets everyday and seeing it work without any problems that they never see the thousands of hours of rigorous testing that goes in to make those devices robust and workable in the real world before it comes into their hand.Every bit of equipment whether it is a small IC chip to complex systems like computers, software etc… needs to be continually tested, monitored and updated.

And a nuclear weapon is a serious piece of equipment.Thousands of times more complex and intricate than your desktop PC or Ipod. Without continual testing there is no way any serious scientist or technical expert will certify that the Nuclear weapon will actually do its stuff when it is used in a military situation. So that is where the CTBT and FMCT comes in. It is designed to make sure that no one else besides the P-5 get to build and maintain a nuclear arsenal.

India therefore is correct to insist on its right to test. If we surrender this right our nuclear deterrence will lose its teeth and become nothing but a dud. Pakistan and China have access to the nuclear weapons designs from the hundreds of Chinese nuclear tests done till 1996.What do we have till date? Data from a mere Six nuclear tests!

And regarding point no 4. What is good for the goose is also good for the gander. The Indian media and “intellectuals” can be accussed of having the same shortcomings.Having a “blinkered vision” and “all-or-nothing approach” and not being sophisticated enough to appreciate “technical realities”.

Update: ToI op-ed Agni-Pariksha, now available online.